Retail Crime Continues to Surge Despite Police Data
Amid shopping season, UF experts warn retail theft is growing more sophisticated

The Loss Prevention Research Council and its affiliated UF researchers offer evidence-based insights as retailers report rising crime and safety concerns

With the busiest shopping season of the year approaching, new findings from the National Retail Federation’s Impact of Retail Theft and Violence 2025 report — developed by the University of Florida’s SaferPlaces Lab and the Loss Prevention Research Council — show retailers are facing increasingly complex and technology-driven threats. UF researchers say early preparation, better data and stronger collaboration will be essential as stores brace for heavier foot traffic and heightened safety risks.

Despite public reports that retail theft is decreasing, Read Hayes, Ph.D., a UF research scientist and director of the LPRC at UF Innovate, said retailer surveys tell a different story: Incidents of shoplifting, organized retail crime, online fraud and other external theft continue to rise, even as some law enforcement statistics appear flat or declining. The gap, he said, reflects how much crime goes unreported or unrecorded.

“Retailers have always had a difficult time reporting much of their crime, and if you look only at police data, like calls for service or arrests, it can look like retail crime is flat or even slightly down,” he said. “But when we survey retailers, who are the actual crime victims, they consistently report year-over-year increases in theft and violence.”

Criminal groups are also becoming more sophisticated. Hayes said offenders are increasingly using technology to defeat protective systems, disrupt cameras and identify vulnerable stores. They also rely heavily on social media platforms such as TikTok and Reddit to coordinate attacks and share tactics.

“It’s a little disconcerting how much criminals rely on social media now to scout stores, map out easy targets, learn from each other or just plain brag about how they did it,” he said.

LPRC scientists monitor social media signals to help retailers and law enforcement understand emerging threats — not in real time, Hayes said, but to help build best practices organizations can use to defend themselves.

Safety remains retailers’ top concern, Hayes said. LPRC’s latest report, developed in collaboration with the security technology company Verkada, found that frontline retail workers report feeling less safe than ever, a trend that typically intensifies during the holiday rush. Rising incidents of in-store violence, limited law enforcement support in some areas and increased guest-related confrontations are pushing retailers to reassess how they protect both employees and customers. news.ufl.edu
 

Black Friday Was a 'Super Bowl' for Shoplifters
Black Friday theft threat turns holiday weekend into shoplifters' 'Super Bowl': former detective
Former NYPD Detective Patrick Brosnan told Fox News Digital that organized retail theft is no longer simply "petty shoplifting," adding, "this is a whole different deal."

Brosnan said organized retail theft has become a "very profitable business" and is expanding "faster than law enforcement can adapt."

"Organized retail crime today in 2025, it's no longer teenagers stealing T-shirts," Brosnan said. "These are professional theft rings operating across state lines, reselling through sophisticated and widely networked online marketplaces. They are a sophisticated, super profitable, multibillion-dollar business."

Law enforcement agencies across America often increase patrols on Black Friday in an effort to deter theft, including those in some of the nation's biggest cities, like Nashville, San Francisco, Los Angeles and many more.

Brosnan compared Black Friday for shoplifters to one of the nation's biggest sporting events as millions of Americans enter storefronts.

"Black Friday is their Super Bowl, right? Stores are crowded, you got to understand, very easy to blend in. And unlike most times, the high value goods are out. Staff is stretched and traffic, because there's so much traffic, it camouflages the escape routes," he said. "Law enforcement really has very significant hurdles to overcome. It's not just a regular day."

The former NYPD detective, who founded Brosnan Risk Consultants and has advised major retailers, said he’s urged clients to lock down "high-value" merchandise, such as electronics, fragrances and designer goods. He added that stores should also consider placing their tools in locked cases.

While Brosnan says retailers are doing "everything they can" to mitigate theft, it's a "bad situation" that's "only getting worse." fox5dc.com

   RELATED: Retailers tighten security as Black Friday crowds grow & theft rises


$1.3 Billion Gone:
How Retail Theft is Draining Colorado’s Economy

The economic stakes are substantial accounting for both direct losses and the ensuing economic impacts.

In 2022, Colorado retailers lost an estimated $278.75 in sales per capita to theft. While this loss rate is about 19% lower than the national average, its cumulative effects remain severe. Beyond shoplifting itself, return fraud and related retail scams are estimated to have cost Colorado businesses $1.4 billion in 2022, pushing total retail losses to as much as $2.69 billion.

These losses extend far beyond the retail floor into public finances. Unlike residential burglary, auto theft, or other personal property crimes, retail theft represents not only lost property but direct losses to taxable sales. The State of Colorado forfeited an estimated $37.4 million in sales tax revenue from retail theft alone, and an additional $40.6 million from fraudulent returns and sales, bringing the total estimated loss in tax revenue to $78 million.

Given the state’s budgetary condition, economic outlook, and challenges with crime generally in the last five years, legislators should consider means of deterring retail theft, including lowering the dollar threshold for felony theft and creating a new penalty for theft related to organized retail crime.

Under current law, theft of $2,000 or more constitutes a felony in Colorado, distinguishing high-value or organized retail crime from smaller incidents. This threshold raises important policy questions about whether existing statutes are sufficient to deter coordinated, high-value crimes that increasingly target retailers across the state.

Colorado recorded 27,094 shoplifting incidents in 2024, a 22.4% year-over-year increase relative to 2023 and nearly 10% higher than a decade ago. Given that up to roughly 89% of retail thefts go unreported, the true number of incidents is likely closer to 246,309 statewide. commonsenseinstituteus.org

   RELATED: Heading into holidays, shoplifting on the rise in Colorado, study says

Will Tougher ORC Laws Curb Holiday Shoplifting?
New Oklahoma law cracks down on organized shoplifting rings

A new law in Oklahoma, which went into effect on November 1st, cracks down on organized shoplifting rings and has harsher punishments. The law makes organized retail theft a separate crime if it falls under certain criteria.

As we head into the holiday shopping season, a new law in Oklahoma cracks down on organized shoplifting rings and has harsher punishments. Tulsa Police say businesses are losing thousands of dollars a day from thieves who hit stores over and over and over.

House Bill 1592 was passed into law, and it gives prosecutors the power to prosecute crime rings that repeatedly steal from stores, then sell the items online. Before this, many thieves would get caught, get a misdemeanor ticket and go right back to stealing.

What does the new law do?

The new law began on November 1 and makes organized retail theft a separate crime. Offenders can be charged under the law if they meet the criteria. The criteria also include if shoplifters use any sort of tools like tag cutters or other items to help avoid detection, having a fraudulent, paper or obstructed license plate.

Bristow says this law can help them better hold these theft rings accountable. The state has also created an Organized Retail Theft task force to handle these cases.

Another New Law for Shoplifters

Another law says if a shoplifter assaults a store employee or a loss prevention officer, they can be charged with robbery instead of just larceny. newson6.com


How to Discourage Theft Over the Holidays
Tips against retail theft, porch pirates during holiday shopping
“If you do have a big purchase, you have some bags with you and you feel someone is trailing you, the worst thing that you can do is be alone,” said Honolulu Police Department Chief’s Office acting Capt. Hai Shin Lin. “”So hopefully you have a buddy system, hopefully you’re with someone, but if not, stay with the crowd. Better yet, you know, make a beeline into the nearest store and let them know that there might be someone following them, and to call security.”

For those who prefer online shopping, police said ’tis the season of more reports about porch pirates but there are ways to discourage this type of theft from your home.

“So, for a porch pirate, the worst thing that they can see is if there’s like a gate, if there’s dogs, if there’s security cameras, the more obstacles you can put in place is probably the best,” Capt. Lin said. “If it’s a big ticket item and you’ve had the opportunity and the means to do it, let it go to one of the pickup sites. A good example is Amazon. Any Whole foods on the island, they will actually hold your package for you for an X amount of days.”

Police and retailers agreed, stay alert this holiday season, shop with someone if possible and make your home look like too much work for a package thief.  khon2.com
 

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