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May 30, 2017


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 The D&D Daily's 2016 ORC Report
Publicly Reported ORC Cases & Suspects Hit All-Time High

Publicly reported ORC cases in 2016 were up 7.4% at 1,590 cases, with the number of suspects up 4.3% at 3,682 suspects arrested.

Year # of Cases $ Amount Reported # of Suspects
2012 515  $146,082,301 1,865
2013 893  $301,839,481 3,149 
2014* 1,200 $681,802,614 3,235 
2015* 1,480 $515,088,741 3,528
2016* 1,590 $314,285,830 3,682 

*Dollar Amount Reported Variances Explained
Of special note is that we reported three cases in 2014 and 2015 that totaled over $700 million, which elevated the total dollar amounts reported.

In 2016, a suspect from a 2014 $200M case was sentenced and the dollar amount was not included in the total dollars reported. This explains the wide variance for 2016.
From the May 14, 2014 Daily:
$200M credit card fraud case
From the June 20, 2014 Daily: $200M credit card scheme
From the Jan. 16, 2015 Daily: $325M international counterfeit smuggling case

From the Jan. 8, 2016 Daily: Leader $200M Credit Card Fraud Scam Sentenced To 80 Months In Prison - Case initially reported on May 14, 2014 - not included in $ Amount Reported column.

Analysis: Are we getting better at fighting ORC?
Yes We Are – But There’s A Caveat
Non-Reporting - Reduced Reporting &
New Laws Take Time to Show Up in the News

Over the last ten years, using Albuquerque’s first association roll-out date as a starting date, the retail Loss Prevention community along with the public law enforcement communities, pioneered one of the largest public-private collaborative efforts in the nation’s history.

With over 47 ORC Associations bringing together over 15,000 investigators it would appear that we’re now identifying them earlier, catching them faster, and arresting more of them.

Given that these numbers only reflect those cases that are publicly reported, it does not reflect the full magnitude of the nation's ORC problem. With corporate media sensitivity and fewer reporters reporting it due to the newspaper industry’s contraction, especially over the last five years, these numbers are actually more significant then they appear at first glance.

Especially given the NRF’s 2016 ORC Study and The 2016 National Retail Security Survey both showing that ORC is now the leading cause of shrink.

With 100% of the retail industry being victimized, upper management understanding the severity, and staffing at an all-time high, it would appear from these numbers that, yes, we are getting better at fighting the ORC epidemic.

However, these numbers don’t include cyber crime’s impact as we’re still operating under the ORC definition of ten years ago.

More importantly, as stated above, it also doesn’t include the vast majority of cases retailers aren’t reporting and the media’s not reporting due to staff reductions.

Additionally, we could also be seeing that there’s a core group of reporters in the nation that are reporting it due to the increased state statutes. With that said, it’ll take time as well to see the impact from the most recent seven state passages over the last two years if, indeed, there are reporters out there to even report it.

So while it appears we’re getting better at fighting it, the industry must remain vigilant and focused on the effort while at the same time the industry deserves recognition for all of the tireless efforts and thousands of hours so many have invested.

The bottom line is that the associations are working and the retailers' investments are paying off.

However, using the publicly reported cases is an inexact science and without centralized reporting we must rely on the subject matter expertise of the retail Loss Prevention industry and each retailer's team leaders who live, eat and breathe ORC.

Editor's Note: In collecting and publishing these cases and in tabulating these results, we strive to ensure the accuracy and content of each case as it relates to its respective category of theft and collecting as much data as we can from the articles themselves. However, as a publisher, we're not data scientists and at the end of the day we're relegated to whatever is published.

Certainly, there are those cases that we do follow up on with the respective authorities and attempt to collect even more data. But there are limitations to our resources that may impact these numbers. So we are not responsible for the accuracy or details of any reported case.

2016 Monthly & Quarterly Analysis

The third quarter and specifically August are the most active quarter and month of the year.

Certainly the back half was also the most active, despite November being lightest month, possibly reflecting how the Thanksgiving holiday might, in fact, be impacting reduced activity.

2016 ORC Cases by Month
2016 ORC Cases by Quarter

Five Year Quarterly Analysis

Obviously the back half of the year, the third and fourth quarter, are the busiest time of year for ORC. Interestingly, showing the same trends as consumer shopping.

5-Year Trend

Five-year, month-by-month breakdown

Eight out of 12 months last year saw a higher number of cases when compared to monthly data over the past five years, as the graph below shows.

ORC Cases By Month (2012-2016)

ORC Cases by State

The map below shows which states were the hottest ORC spots last year, according to publicly reported data in 2016.

The five states with the highest number of ORC cases in 2016 were:
1. Florida (116)
2. California (112)
3. Pennsylvania (111)
4. Texas (96)
5. New York (88)

Below are the top 5 states by year from 2012-2015

1. Florida (63)
2. California (60)
3. Texas (52)
4. Pennsylvania (45)
5. New York (38)
1. Florida (102)
2. Pennsylvania (81)
3. Texas (65)
4. California (61)
5. New York (41)
1. Florida (142)
2. Pennsylvania (89)
3. California (87)
4. New York (76)
5. Texas (74)
1. Florida (116)
2. Pennsylvania (76)
3. Texas (75)
4. California (73)
5. New York (65)

There is an obvious correlation between state population and the number of ORC cases reported, as the states topping the list are among the most populous in the country. This same pattern can be seen with shopping trends, as we reported in the Daily on Feb. 21.

ORC By Method

The most popular method used was shoplifting/theft, which represented roughly 67% of all cases last year. The chart below shows this and other various methods used in ORC cases reported in 2016.  

Average Case Value

Year Average $ Amount % Change
2012 $283,655 n/a
2013 $338,006 up 19% over '12
2014 $231,031* down 31% over '13
2015 $128,438* down 44% over '14
2016 $71,877* down 44% over '15
2012-2016 down 75% overall since 2012

*Referring to the four large cases mentioned at the beginning of this report, we have subtracted them from the average case value in the chart to provide a more accurate measure of the average case value per year.

ORC Suspects By Gender

Of 2016's 3,682 reported suspects, 1,687 were male (62.6%) and 1,006 were female (37.4%). The remaining 989 had no reported gender. 

The chart below shows a five-year breakdown. Since 2012, the gender involvement remains consistent.

Year % of Male % of Female
2012 61.4% 38.6%
2013 59.4% 40.6%
2014 62.7% 37.3%
2015 62.7% 37.3%
2016 62.6% 37.4%

Top Five ORC Cases of 2016

Of the hundreds of incidents reported in 2016, the highest dollar cases involved everything from credit card cybercrime to theft. Below are the the top five cases (by dollar amount) reported in the Daily last year:

Jan. 8, 2016
Leader Of International, $200M Credit Card Fraud Scam Sentenced To 80 Months In Prison

July 21, 2016
Man admits running $9M global credit card cybercrime ring

August 1, 2016
Six member fraud gang busted for $9M scheme - Hit Home Depot & Target Stores

Oct. 25, 2016
Miami, FL: Five charged in theft of 23,000 Apple iPhones valued at over $7 million

June 17, 2016
Westwood, CA: 9 charged with robbing 10 jewelry stores of $6 million in designer loot


Methodology: The Daily collects this retail store specific information from public news media sources throughout the United States and reports it daily in our Retail Crime column. We do not survey any retailers or third parties nor collect information from any retail executive. All of this information is available through public news media outlets. We do not claim nor does it represent all such incidents or deaths that may occur in retail locations or retail corporate facilities as many may not be reported in the news media depending on a number of variables outside of our control. We are not responsible for the acccuracy of the information reported in the various news media outlets. We do not name any retailer, retail executive, suspect, or victim.

Copyright: We reserve the rights to this industry exclusive report and do not authorize its republication or reproduction without written consent which may include a fee. By re-publishing or reproducing this report or any parts of it without authorization the party agrees to pay a fee determined by the D&D Daily.



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